The world population continues to grow, and at the same time, the per capita consumption of seafood is constantly increasing. To meet the growing demand, the first step was to decimate natural fish stocks through a ruthless fishing industry. To mitigate this effect, but also, and probably primarily, to open up new areas of profitability, a rapidly growing industry has invested in aquaculture. However, aquaculture cannot grow infinitely either. More or less suitable areas on land and along coasts have become scarce. In addition, prices for fish meal and fish oil from a special type of fishing for feed in fish farms keep increasing, a clear sign that a crucial raw material is becoming scarce. The growth of aquaculture has long passed its peak [1], and global warming will impose additional limits.
For some time now, industrialists have been looking to the open sea, a supposedly endless and inexhaustible area on which they want to set up their farms. A recent study conducted by universities in the United States, Japan, and Germany examined scenarios for strategically improving aquaculture by identifying the most suitable zones for each species, also taking into account the effects of global warming [2]. In the best-case scenario, the authors estimate that by 2050, bivalve production could increase by a factor of 2.36 and fish production by a factor of 1.82.
The bivalve production goal may be reasonable, since no feed is needed, but the fish production goal seems far too optimistic. Above all, however, the study did not address a major problem: the welfare of the farmed animals. We still do not know much about the natural behaviour and needs of mussels, but we do know that almost all fish species cannot experience welfare in captivity [3]. The idea of nearly doubling the fish production seems to be based on the assumption that consumers will continue to be unconcerned about poor fish welfare — a bet the industry would be better off not taking, as fish welfare is gaining momentum.
The huge amount of money needed for more growth of fish farming would be better invested in the sustainable management of fisheries at the global level, which would allow up to 60% more landings [4].
Title picture:
Net cages for fish farming at sea (credit: Asc1733 / Wikimedia Commons)
References:
[1] https://think.fish/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/fish-facts_41_EN_web.pdf (page 10)
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/02/250219121233.htm
[3] https://think.fish/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/TK_Facts-5_EN.pdf
[4] https://think.fish/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/TK_Facts-4_how-much-EN.pdf